Tickled Pink for Trump

The incessant cries of ‘America First’ can only be associated with one man: President Donald Trump. His campaign rallies were driven by this battle cry which is, to Trump, more than a slogan. His campaign — along with his reign — was impregnated with numerous protectionist policies to bring this mantra to life. His promises of a 20% tariff on all trade, 60% in the case of China, give us a feel for what is yet to come.

Despite Starmer gracing X with a supportive tweet in response to Trump’s victory, initial reactions on this side of the pond are not entirely positive. The proposed tariffs on British trade are likely to slow down our already meagre growth. A 20% tariff means British goods will be 20% more expensive in the US market. Consequently, American consumers are more likely to switch to cheaper homegrown alternatives which do not face this tax. 

Although only a small proportion of UK goods are exported to the US (14% as of 2023), the nature of Britain's small open economy means we are particularly vulnerable to adjustments in import prices. A US trade war with EU countries, with Germany’s substantial manufacturing base in particular danger of contraction.  also have repercussions for Britain. 

The effect of these tariffs, alongside other isolation policies, will be global. Trade barriers are likely to have sweeping negative effects on short-run growth, long-run growth, and even uncertain effects on interest rates, according to Claire Lombardi, the Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England. In this way, one does not appear to be too enthused by another term of Trumponomics.

Consequently, it is time for the UK to wake up and smell the bacon. We have reached a tipping point where our ‘not-so-special relationship’ — which so often sees Britain pandering to the US’ every whim — needs to be left in the past. 

While the trade threats plant seeds of uncertainty between us, the ideological discrepancies between the US and Britain today are also worth considering. The US is becoming an increasingly hostile environment. First and foremost, American women’s rights lag behind the standards set by the UK. When Roe Vs Wade was overturned in 2022, it left 22 million women without access to reproductive care. This starkly contrasts to the UK where abortion is widely supported with 87% of British citizens supporting the legality of abortion. Finally, and most shockingly the very concept of democracy was under threat with the Capitol riots. Now the US is led by a President who is prone to spouting racial hatred much akin to ‘laziness is a trait in blacks’. These examples portray a socially regressive state and provide sufficient encouragement for Britain to take the US off their pedestal and focus elsewhere. 

Despite a strong sense of American Exceptionalism, there are ample opportunities for new partnerships. In light of the anti-globalisation rhetoric championed by Trump, one must remember that this earth is occupied by 194 other countries, and most of which are potential trade partners. Despite Trump’s protectionism and the recent rerouting of trade routes due to the Russia- Ukraine war, global trade is on the up and is expected to increase by 3% in 2025. Supply chains are remarkably adaptable, recently giving rise to what has been dubbed as ‘Slowbalistation’. This is a slower form of globalisation characterised by an increase in regionalised trade which is forecasted to greatly benefit countries such as India and Vietnam. This diversification is creating opportunities for huge economic growth in emerging markets and presents the perfect opportunity for Britain to capitalise. 

Britain needs to focus on their relationships with these blossoming countries. I’m talking about investment, trade, and immigration- the whole nine yards. To give the foreign office some credit, some tangible steps have already been made. Starmer has already announced he hopes to relaunch a free trade agreement with India, acknowledging their vital role in Britain’s growth (they are the fifth largest economy in the world after all). This builds off the Tory government’s previously agreed 2030 roadmap championed by Johnson and Modi. It details increased integration between the two countries. Prioritising investment in Indian businesses was a key tenet with over 2.2 billion invested in the Indian economy through the British Investment Institute.

Furthermore, as of the 15th of December, the UK is set to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Joining this free trade agreement with major players such as Australia and New Zealand will unquestionably boost economic growth. The lower trade barriers and consequential reliance created will help relationships blossom. This further assists our decentring America agenda.

These moves are a step in the right direction in support of my expansionist, global vision for Britain. My only hope is that Starmer and Lammy take this further. Instead of employing valuable resources in hopes of a kiss from across the pond, we should look beyond this parched puddle. I must reiterate this expansionist mindset is not an endorsement of a cessation of our relationship with the US. It is merely a well-needed break, the opportunity to get to know other people. Who knows, we might just find a better fit.

Card Photo by David Iliff

All articles and opinions posted give the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Leeds Think Tank, the Leeds University Union, or the University of Leeds.