Brazil Breaks the Pattern

What does Lula’s victory in Brazil reveal about the broader political landscape in Latin America?

In recent years, an Orange Wave has been precipitating in Latin American politics. This  wave has been coined by news outlets as a “three-year surge of right-wing triumphs  that has reshaped Latin American politics in the US president’s tangerine-hued image”.

This marks a departure from the Pink Tide wave, which was an unprecedented wave of  electoral victories across the region, as explained by Levitsky & Roberts (2011). Across  Latin America, countries such as Argentina, Chile and Colombia have confirmed the  surge of right-wing politics, as successful candidates have created their electoral  support through mandates for tougher approaches to criminality and addressing chronic economic challenges. The significant transition from left to right notably demonstrates both the fluidity of support and ideological realignment, as depicted in  the map below (See Figure 1). 

Figure 1: Latin America’s Rightward Shift. Adapted from the Council on Foreign  Relations (2026) 

On the 25^th of October 2026, the runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro, representing the  right-wing Liberal Party (Partido Liberal) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, representing the  left-wing Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores), concluded with the incumbent,  Lula, winning with 51.79% of votes - against 48.21% of votes for Bolsonaro. This outcome arguably poses an anomaly in the political spectrum of Latin America, as  other countries have, since 2023, increasingly favoured the right-wing, with conservative and libertarian ideologies shaping states’ agendas. 

More closely, Lula’s win is particularly significant as his re-election to office has  occurred during the US interference in Latin American politics. Trump’s second term has seen considerable engagement with presidential elections across Latin American  states, notably through publicly cultivated relationships with right-wing candidates,  whose manifestos align with Trump’s conservative and nationalist ideological aims. A Chatham House expert recognises this as the “Trumpista” ideological network, which  may have been a contributing factor towards Argentina’s 2025 electoral outcome, as  indicated by the US’ financial support for Javier Milei. Trump shared that if “a socialist  wins”, then the US would feel “a lot differently” about supporting the South American  nation. He reinforced the close relationship with Milei by stating that “if he loses, we are  not going to be generous with Argentina”. 

Whilst there has been a strong consistency in the formation of right-wing governments  due to the implications of the US under Trump’s administration. It is important to  acknowledge that these electoral results have not been shaped exclusively by Trump’s involvement in Latin American politics. The shift has been widely attributed to voter  concerns over crime, security, and economic turmoil. 

A direct comparison can be drawn to highlight the contrasting trajectories of the Orange  Wave through Colombia’s and Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Elections. After four years of a left-wing government under President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s 2026 presidential  election concluded with a shift towards the right of the pendulum. The remarkably tight results concluded with the conservative, right-wing candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella,  securing the presidency by a narrow margin of less than 1% of the vote over his  opponent, Iván Cepeda. Abelardo de la Espriella, recognised by the political moniker ‘El  Tigre’, received 49.7% of the votes, as opposed to Iván Cepeda, who achieved 48.7%. 

The Orange Wave’s influence is reflected in De la Espriella’s win, particularly in Trump’s  public endorsement. After the first round of the Colombian Presidential Election, Trump  identified the right-wing (then) candidate as a “Smart, Strong, and Tough Leader”, and  continued to mirror the favourable dialogue used in his support for Argentinian  politician Milei. The parallelism accentuates the recurring pattern in Trump’s  engagement with right-wing Latin American candidates and is drawn from his statement, “The results of this Election are very important to the future of Colombia and  its relationship to the United States”.

This political relationship between De la Espriella  and Trump is essential to understanding the pattern of the success of right-wing  politicians. It should be recognised that it does not stand solely as the determining  factor for Colombia’s 2026 outcome, as the vote was also shaped by domestic  discontent with Petro’s government and widespread concern over security. 

It can be argued that Trump attempted to continue intruding in Latin American politics  and therefore direct the region further towards becoming right-wing. But the pattern of  the Orange Wave’s influence suggests it is limited due to Lula’s win in Brazil. Whilst 

Trump did not endorse Bolsonaro, he had welcomed him to the White House, and his  scepticism on the matter could be interpreted from his comment to reporters,

“I didn’t  take sides, but it looked like another rigged election ... It looked very bad to me”.  

Neither the Orange Wave nor Trump entirely influences or determines election  outcomes across Latin America. The right-wing is not a monolith that can be instilled in  a region because of greater influences. Ultimately, electorates choose in accordance  with their alignment with a party, their judgement of the party’s mandates and their  hopes for the future governance of their country.