COP30 at a Crossroads

What the absence of the superpowers means for the future of global climate cooperation

With COP3O starting earlier this week , all eyes are focusing in on the biggest climate event on the year. However, with the absence of Donald Trump and the USA, big shadow is cast upon who takes the lead with global climate talks. Can the UK’s new prime minister step up to the occasion and more importantly, is the future of COP in serious danger? 

COP30 is an annual climate summit run by the UN and taking place in Belém, Brazil this year, ironically referred to as ‘the Lungs of the World’. COP30 brings together major world leaders and climate activists who have the opportunity to outline future climate initiatives to tackle the ongoing climate crisis. What’s different this year is that Donald Trump will not be in attendance, nor will he be sending any delegates on the USA’s behalf. Other notable absences include Xi Jinping and India’s PM Narendra Modi; however they will be sending representatives in place.  

The absence of the USA looms large at a time where the world is in desperate need for a leader to come forward and coordinate meaningful action. This could prove to be a defining moment for COP30, raising the important question: who will step up?  

Historically the US has been at the centre of global climate talks, creating real change and positive climate action programmes. As the world’s second largest carbon emitter, the US actions have significant consequences, naturally their absence has caused a notable void.  

Does the US absence make Britain the leader-in-waiting? Since the collapse of the Empire and the end of the Cold War, Britain have struggled to find its voice on the world stage. The UK has long operated in the shadow of the USA but for the first time in decades, the UK has the rare opportunity to emerge. This could be the moment it takes centre stage, leading the way for meaningful climate action. However, this does not come without challenges. There are many sceptical about what the UK could realistically achieve without backing of big superpowers.  

Despite this, the UK has showcased real success in recent years when it comes to leading global negotiations. For example, COP26, held in Glasgow, was a triumph with the reaffirmation of the Paris Agreement, new commitments to climate finance and a new emphasis on curbing forests lost. In addition to this, the current government have been relatively dedicated to remaining climate friendly, with the pursuit of the 2050 net zero target. This demonstrates UK's competence to lead climate talks.  

However, Keir Starmer has warned that “consensus (in regards to climate talks) is gone”,  indicating that COP30 will be an uphill battle to find common ground between leaders.

Britain may be able to lead the conference and stand as a credible leader for global climate discussions, but the fact of the matter is these initiatives are costly. Consequently, Britain may struggle to put its money where its mouth is. 

This takes us onto the bigger question: is COP even useful anymore, or is it purely performance politics? If the leaders of the two biggest emitters and economic powers, the US and China are absent, then what hope is there for any legitimate action to be taken? Climate initiatives is not just about discussion of future goals, it is about dedicating real time, commitment and investment towards these goals, for a fighting chance at creating positive change.  

As COP30 kicks off there is a sense that this could be a pivotal moment for international climate cooperation, with major players like the US and China absent is this the UK time to step up? This seems like a large ask from the UK’s perspective, and even Starmer himself seems rather pessimistic about the state of COP30. This poses the bigger threat: is COP even relevant anymore?