England's School Absence Crisis Needs Support, Not Fines
- Leeds Policy Institute
- Jul 3
- 3 min read
2026 report finds England's post-pandemic absence crisis is widening the attainment gap and argues that a graduated, needs-based approach would reach at-risk pupils that punitive fines miss.
Leeds, July 2026. A new Leeds Policy Institute (LPI) report examines the post-pandemic rise in school absence across England and its effect on the attainment gap, using school-level Department for Education data for Leeds. Applying regression analysis alongside a two-school case study, the paper argues that persistent absence acts as both a symptom of structural disadvantage and a driver of lasting educational harm, and that the current reliance on punitive Fixed Penalty Notices does little to reach the families most at risk.
“Absence operates both as a consequence of structural disadvantage and as a primary driver of educational scarring, which binary attendance thresholds and fixed penalties fail to address.”
Key Findings:
Absence has surged since the pandemic. Persistent absence rose from 10.53% pre-pandemic to 17.63% in 2024/25, with severe absence reaching 2.26%, leaving England's education system facing a systematic post-pandemic problem.
Absence strongly predicts attainment. Regressing persistent and total absence against Attainment 8 scores for Leeds secondary schools produces a model that is statistically significant at the 0.5% level, with R-squared values of 78 to 80%. The pattern holds across key stages, with 35.6% of persistently absent KS4 pupils reaching expected standards against 83.7% of full attenders.
The most at-risk pupils are missing from the data. Some 35.4% of pupils with unclassified Special Educational Needs and Disabilities, and 21.1% of those on Free School Meals, had less than 50% attendance, which suggests the families most in need are underrepresented in official statistics.
Disadvantage compounds absence. Persistent absence reaches 35.5% among SEND pupils against 16.8% without, 34.8% among Free School Meal pupils against 14.1%, and 70.2% among Irish Traveller pupils against 5.5% for Chinese pupils.
School culture matters as much as postcode. Two Leeds secondary schools half a mile apart with near-identical catchments record persistent absence of 49.4% and 17.6%, indicating that school policy and culture are powerful levers, not just local deprivation.
Policy Recommendations:
SEND Resourcing and Staffing Standard. Leeds City Council should set a minimum SEND staffing standard for all secondary schools, backed by administrative simplification, systematic pupil monitoring, and incentives to attract experienced SEND practitioners to high-absence schools, drawing on Portugal's Plan + Classes + Success model.
Early Attendance Support Pathway. Pilot a tiered pathway from birth to age 16 with individualised specialist support for children with additional needs, a more accessible EHCNA application process, and dedicated transition key workers for pupils moving from primary to secondary, modelled on Singapore's EIPIC scheme, which is associated with a national persistent absence rate of around 2%.
Family Engagement Programme. Introduce a structured Home Visitation Programme delivered by trained Family Liaison Officers, expanded and separately funded in high-deprivation areas so it does not strain teaching staff, following Connecticut's LEAP programme, where home visits raised attendance by around 4 percentage points after the first visit and around 7 points by six months.
Graduated Reintegration Programme. Replace Fixed Penalty Notices with a phased, relational reintegration framework, with safe in-school reintegration spaces and whole-staff awareness training on Emotionally Based School Avoidance, reflecting a specialist setting that recorded 95% attendance using staged re-entry.
By reframing absence as a needs-based challenge rather than a disciplinary one, this policy paper sets out a graduated, evidence-led alternative to binary attendance thresholds, drawing on international models to keep the most vulnerable pupils in school and narrow the attainment gap in Leeds.
About Leeds Policy Institute
Leeds Policy Institute (LPI) is the UK's first student-run policy unit and think tank based at the University of Leeds. Since its founding in April 2023, LPI has brought together over 100 undergraduate and postgraduate students across a wide range of disciplines to produce evidence-based, non-partisan research. All research outputs undergo rigorous internal review and are evaluated by the Academic Advisory Council. In its third year of operations, LPI members have presented at the British Conference of Undergraduate Research in London (LSE) and Newcastle, and have seen their work featured on national platforms including the Financial Times.
Media Contact:
Anatoly Safiulov
President, Leeds Policy Institute
+44 7849 891757
Notes to Editors:
The full policy paper is available upon request.
The paper analyses the relationship between persistent absence and attainment using school-level Department for Education data for Leeds, supported by a case study of two comparable secondary schools.
The regression model relating persistent and total absence to Attainment 8 scores is statistically significant at the 0.5% level, with R-squared values of 78 to 80%.
The LPI is based at the University of Leeds and produces independent, evidence-led research to inform UK policy.
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